BitSaci

 The quant community just witnessed a public execution, and honestly, it was overdue. Sina from 21st Capital absolutely torched one of crypto's most beloved correlation models – the Global M2 vs Bitcoin price prediction framework that Raoul Pal has been pushing for months. For those who've been following this narrative, the model supposedly shows Bitcoin tracking global money supply with a 10-12 week lead time. Sounds scientific, looks convincing on cherry-picked charts, but according to Sina – who actually teaches data analytics at university level – it's "a terrible failure of not understanding overfitting." The takedown was brutal but necessary. Sina demonstrated how the apparent correlation only exists because analysts "torture" the data until it confesses. When you can arbitrarily shift timeframes from 12 weeks to 10 weeks to 108 days until the charts align, you're not modeling – you're playing dress-up with numbers. The fundamental probl...